By James Haynie

March 2026

In early 2025, as the market began to falter amid worries over the potential impacts of tariffs, many investors wondered if it was time to lighten up on stocks. Shortly after ‘Liberation Day,’ when President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, the S&P 500 Index had already lost about 19% of its value. Not surprisingly, a survey by Bank of America conducted in May found that nearly four out of 10 investors were underweight their normal exposure to U.S. equities.¹ The market made investors regret that decision, with stocks rebounding nearly 40% by the end of the year.

Some investors are again wondering if it makes sense to stay fully invested, especially after volatility returned to the market in March after the start of the war in Iran. In the first full week after the start of the conflict, retail investors pared back on their equity purchases by around 30% as fear that the war would drive oil prices higher sent the markets slumping.²

Are these investors wrong? While it’s impossible to know with certainty how stocks will perform amid the conflict, or whether rising oil prices will fan inflation throughout the economy, investors stand a much better chance of maximizing their performance by staying invested at all times, rather than trying to pick and choose when to exit and re-enter the market.To be sure, uncertainties abound, ranging from the ongoing geopolitical risks to the persistence of inflation to a possible bubble surrounding the euphoria surrounding the AI trade. But has there ever been a market environment in which there was absolute certainty about the health of consumers, the economy, or the market? Of course not.
Here are a few reasons why it ultimately pays to stay invested, even in uncertain times like these:

The alternative is much, much harder
The past year offers a perfect example of the risks of trying to time the market. In 2025, investors didn’t turn truly bearish until stocks had already declined by more than 17%. At the same time, surveys showed that investors didn’t turn truly bullish until July, by which time stocks had already rebounded more than 25%. Selling only after stocks have lost considerable value and then waiting until stocks have rebounded significantly before returning to the market is a sure-fire recipe to lag the market.

This explains why, over the past 20 years, the average investor earned 9.2% annually through their equity funds, even though the S&P 500 returned 10.4% annually during this stretch, according to the investment research firm Dalbar.³ Over time, that adds up to real money. A $100,000 investment earning 10.4% a year would turn into $723,400 in two decades, thanks to the power of compound interest. The same amount returning 9.2% annually would earn $142,000 less.

Fleeing the market is the wrong way to look at downturns
The famed investor Shelby Davis once noted that “You make most of your money in a bear market; you just don't realize it at the time.” That’s because the price you pay for new investments directly affects your potential returns. Market selloffs give long-term investors the ability to make new investments at attractive prices and hold them for decades. The smart money takes advantage of these openings. This is why it’s not only important to stay the course in difficult markets, it’s also beneficial to keep investing, as difficult and counterintuitive as that may seem.

Stocks rise more frequently than they fall
The odds are simply in favor of buy-and-hold investors. Over the past 70 years through the end of 2025, U.S. stocks have risen 53.7% of the time, while falling on 46.3% of trading days.⁴ This pattern has held in difficult times too. Meanwhile, bear markets tend to be much shorter-lived than bull markets. From 1942 through the end of 2025, the average bear market has lasted just 11.1 months, with an average loss of 32%. By comparison, the average bull market has lasted 4.4 years, with average gains of 152%.
Of course, this advantage only holds true if you’re in the market at all times. Trying to time the market shifts those odds, as there’s a good chance you’ll be out of the market on more up days than down. Yet another reason to stay invested.

¹ “Bearish Stock Investors left to Chase Rally, BofA Poll Shows,” Bloomberg. May 13, 2025.

² “Retail Investors are Showing Signs of ‘Persistent’ Fatigue as Iran Risks Mount,” MarketWatch. March 12, 2026.

³ “Dalbar QAIB 2025: Investors are Still Their Own Worst Enemies,” IFA.com. May 2025.

⁴ “Percentage Positive and Negative Days Across Various Periods: S&P 500 Index,” Crestmont Research.